Half Way to Paradise

by Richard Ballantyne, July 13th, 2012

Sailing tradition celebrates the crossing of the Equator with a visit from King Neptune and Badger Bob who lead various ribald ceremonies. The Vic Maui celebrates the half-way point between Victorian and Lahaina. Usually what happens on the boat - stays on the boat

The leaders have now reached the half-way point. There is 1154 nautical miles left to Maui, which is half of the Rhumb Line distance. But they have certainly sailed much more than 1154 miles so far. Did Badger Bob or his cousins visit the boats in turn? Some are telling (or at least sending pictures), some are not.

Two days ago I speculated on what the fleet would do with their decision to keep making southing, or to make the move under the Pacific High to get close to the Rhumb Line.

The fleet spoke with one voice. The weather indicated that a move toward Maui was indicated and they turned left en masse as the Pacific High conveniently moved west and north. It was as if the Admiral had posted signals to the fleet and all boats obeyed the order to make a sharp right hand turn towards the rhumb line.

Now it is a race to maximize windspeed and optimize the sailing angle toward the Finish. Minor course and speed changes could have big dividends. 

In terms of Line Honours, the competition is between Double Take and Terremoto. As of the 2100 report on July 13, the time prediction on the Leaderboard showed only 3 hours of separation. Presently both boats are expected to blaze across the Finish in the early hours of July 19. But there is still 1100 miles of sailing.

For the Overall prize, it is wide open. Most boats are still in the mix for the big prize. The bigger and faster boats are taking advantage of good angles towards Maui and faster boat speeds to show good VMG towards Maui. But that depends on how boat speed toward Maui is calculated. Different methods of calculation show different Leaderboards. One has Double Take in the Overall lead, one has Terremoto, and another has Family Affair. 

The Yellowbrick prediction for time difference between boats at finish is so small that the whole Racing Division corrects out within hours of each other. This is the closest race of modern memory (a memory somewhat enabled by the on-line technology).

The key to staying on top of the Leaderboard is keeping the boat speed toward Maui up. The weather predictions show the Pacific High staying well to the north and reasonable winds all the way to Maui, albeit a little slower than the first half of the race.

But will the real wind cooperate? 

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